30 October 2026. All figures include VAT. Draft for discussion. Our forecast is on page 2.
How it is built. Best case, worked backwards. Subs are the charges Recharge already has scheduled (December from the renewal book). Other returning is your totals before and over Black Friday, on last year's day-by-day shape with Gold and the birthday on top. Ad budgets are then the most the business can spend and still break even after ads and the £1,200 a day overhead on the ordinary days before Black Friday, stepping up 5% a week with nothing extra on Gold or the birthday, then the one sharp rise on 26 November and a 3.5x floor from there through December. New customers are what those budgets buy with ads running at last year's efficiency plus 15%, the best case for the creative and offer work landing. Your target column is your sheet. Profit is after ads and overhead.
| Day | Ad budget | Subs | Other returning | New customers @ CAC | Revenue | Your target | Profit after overhead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Sun | £3,969 | £3,597 | £4,748 | 74 @ £54 | £14,460 | £19,996 | £803 |
| 02 Mon | £3,969 | £2,275 | £5,103 | 73 @ £54 | £13,448 | £17,657 | £385 |
| 03 Tue | £3,969 | £2,682 | £4,912 | 74 @ £53 | £13,763 | £18,084 | £515 |
| 04 Wed | £3,969 | £1,624 | £4,677 | 74 @ £53 | £12,469 | £16,933 | −£19 |
| 05 Thu | £3,969 | £1,849 | £4,648 | 73 @ £54 | £12,548 | £17,128 | £14 |
| 06 Fri | £3,969 | £3,214 | £4,924 | 73 @ £54 | £14,181 | £18,813 | £688 |
| 07 Sat | £3,969 | £2,490 | £5,011 | 71 @ £56 | £13,385 | £19,662 | £359 |
| 08 Sun | £3,969 | £2,261 | £4,873 | 71 @ £56 | £13,019 | £17,783 | £208 |
| 09 Mon | £4,167 | £2,247 | £5,166 | 72 @ £58 | £13,379 | £17,429 | £158 |
| 10 Tue Gold launch 8am (potter collab) | £4,167 | £2,613 | £29,223 | 141 @ £30 | £43,482 | £38,268 | £12,591 |
| 11 Wed Gold day 2 | £4,167 | £2,346 | £11,548 | 104 @ £40 | £22,475 | £17,623 | £3,915 |
| 12 Thu | £4,167 | £2,477 | £5,126 | 69 @ £60 | £13,335 | £17,815 | £140 |
| 13 Fri | £4,167 | £1,849 | £5,215 | 70 @ £60 | £12,861 | £17,243 | −£55 |
| 14 Sat Birthday GWP email+SMS (60 petites) | £4,167 | £2,057 | £18,433 | 131 @ £32 | £31,318 | £32,463 | £7,087 |
| 15 Sun Birthday tail | £4,167 | £2,340 | £6,438 | 104 @ £40 | £17,356 | £18,060 | £1,801 |
| 16 Mon | £4,366 | £1,947 | £5,072 | 74 @ £59 | £13,115 | £16,893 | −£149 |
| 17 Tue | £4,366 | £1,923 | £4,857 | 75 @ £58 | £13,016 | £16,978 | −£190 |
| 18 Wed | £4,366 | £2,868 | £4,635 | 76 @ £57 | £13,823 | £17,627 | £143 |
| 19 Thu | £4,366 | £2,139 | £4,581 | 76 @ £58 | £12,974 | £17,239 | −£207 |
| 20 Fri | £4,366 | £2,556 | £4,279 | 78 @ £56 | £13,267 | £17,740 | −£86 |
| 21 Sat | £4,366 | £1,604 | £4,873 | 76 @ £57 | £12,797 | £16,791 | −£280 |
| 22 Sun pre-BF lull | £4,366 | £2,298 | £4,873 | 81 @ £54 | £13,491 | £12,392 | £6 |
| 23 Mon pre-BF lull | £4,366 | £2,563 | £5,445 | 77 @ £56 | £14,066 | £12,207 | £244 |
| 24 Tue pre-BF lull | £4,366 | £2,045 | £2,903 | 50 @ £88 | £8,836 | £11,780 | −£1,916 |
| 25 Wed pre-BF lull | £4,366 | £2,867 | £5,378 | 43 @ £101 | £11,638 | £17,690 | −£759 |
| 26 Thu Early access (7am) + SMS | £12,000 | £2,440 | £56,666 | 652 @ £18 | £102,289 | £107,117 | £23,113 |
| 27 Fri Black Friday public + SMS | £20,400 | £3,290 | £67,094 | 779 @ £26 | £121,986 | £130,781 | £21,705 |
| 28 Sat BF weekend | £13,200 | £4,619 | £34,365 | 463 @ £29 | £69,655 | £69,608 | £10,327 |
| 29 Sun BF weekend | £12,000 | £2,642 | £24,866 | 434 @ £28 | £56,236 | £58,201 | £6,764 |
| 30 Mon Cyber Monday + SMS, offer closes | £15,600 | £4,231 | £35,609 | 514 @ £30 | £73,908 | £71,998 | £9,437 |
| November | £177,777 | £75,952 | £385,539 | 4,821 @ £37 | £812,576 | £900,000 | £96,740 |
£900k needs 5,922 new customers at £30 on this spend; the best case buys 4,821 at £37.
| Day | Ad budget | Subs | Other returning | New customers @ CAC | Revenue | Your target | Profit after overhead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Tue | £6,083 | £4,323 | £2,323 | 130 @ £47 | £15,954 | £20,140 | −£901 |
| 02 Wed | £6,083 | £2,734 | £10,699 | 142 @ £43 | £23,568 | £15,964 | £2,451 |
| 03 Thu | £6,083 | £3,223 | £8,166 | 146 @ £42 | £21,826 | £16,030 | £1,732 |
| 04 Fri | £6,083 | £1,952 | £7,023 | 199 @ £31 | £23,213 | £29,920 | £2,304 |
| 05 Sat | £6,083 | £2,222 | £5,527 | 194 @ £31 | £21,669 | £29,581 | £1,667 |
| 06 Sun | £6,083 | £3,862 | £3,936 | 202 @ £30 | £22,232 | £29,930 | £1,899 |
| 07 Mon | £6,223 | £2,993 | £5,208 | 218 @ £28 | £23,835 | £29,682 | £2,421 |
| 08 Tue | £6,223 | £2,718 | £5,310 | 171 @ £36 | £20,294 | £28,855 | £958 |
| 09 Wed | £6,223 | £2,700 | £4,760 | 165 @ £38 | £19,274 | £29,621 | £537 |
| 10 Thu | £6,223 | £3,140 | £10,930 | 163 @ £38 | £25,728 | £29,737 | £3,203 |
| 11 Fri | £6,223 | £2,819 | £6,340 | 175 @ £36 | £21,661 | £29,596 | £1,024 |
| 12 Sat | £6,223 | £2,977 | £9,274 | 174 @ £36 | £24,682 | £29,159 | £2,203 |
| 13 Sun | £6,223 | £2,222 | £9,067 | 157 @ £40 | £22,538 | £29,648 | £1,367 |
| 14 Mon | £4,187 | £2,472 | £7,007 | 119 @ £35 | £17,998 | £30,273 | £1,633 |
| 15 Tue | £4,187 | £2,812 | £6,958 | 118 @ £36 | £18,205 | £30,902 | £1,713 |
| 16 Wed | £4,187 | £2,340 | £6,140 | 118 @ £35 | £16,941 | £28,837 | £1,220 |
| 17 Thu | £4,187 | £2,311 | £6,077 | 109 @ £38 | £16,198 | £29,223 | £931 |
| 18 Fri | £4,187 | £3,447 | £6,526 | 107 @ £39 | £17,621 | £29,566 | £1,486 |
| 19 Sat | £4,187 | £2,570 | £6,453 | 117 @ £36 | £17,374 | £16,169 | £1,389 |
| 20 Sun final shipping days | £4,187 | £3,072 | £4,301 | 106 @ £39 | £14,991 | £16,261 | £460 |
| 21 Mon final shipping days | £4,187 | £1,928 | £5,071 | 106 @ £39 | £14,617 | £15,519 | £314 |
| 22 Tue last shipping day 22 Dec | £4,187 | £2,761 | £1,928 | 67 @ £63 | £9,477 | £9,041 | −£1,690 |
| 23 Wed after shipping cut-off | £600 | £3,080 | £561 | 8 @ £78 | £4,194 | £9,210 | −£68 |
| 24 Thu after shipping cut-off | £600 | £2,458 | £588 | 8 @ £78 | £3,599 | £6,237 | −£314 |
| 25 Fri Christmas Day | £600 | £3,445 | £588 | 9 @ £70 | £4,586 | £8,278 | £94 |
| 26 Sat Boxing Day sale (TBC) | £5,806 | £2,933 | £15,452 | 180 @ £32 | £30,066 | £36,715 | £3,818 |
| 27 Sun Boxing sale (TBC) | £5,806 | £3,954 | £10,804 | 163 @ £36 | £25,316 | £30,639 | £2,108 |
| 28 Mon Boxing sale (TBC) | £5,806 | £5,551 | £12,504 | 133 @ £44 | £26,672 | £32,126 | £2,596 |
| 29 Tue Boxing sale (TBC) | £5,806 | £3,175 | £10,380 | 130 @ £45 | £21,992 | £30,101 | £912 |
| 30 Wed Boxing sale (TBC) | £5,806 | £5,085 | £12,315 | 130 @ £45 | £25,866 | £30,520 | £2,306 |
| 31 Thu Boxing sale (TBC) | £5,806 | £5,085 | £5,380 | 143 @ £40 | £19,775 | £30,520 | £113 |
| December | £154,372 | £96,365 | £207,595 | 4,106 @ £38 | £591,964 | £768,000 | £39,885 |
£768k needs 6,629 new customers at £23 on this spend; the best case buys 4,106 at £38.
If this is the forecast we work to, approve it here and Casey will publish it to the Kova Forecast as the Q4 plan. This signs off our forecast on page 2, not the £900k / £768k scenario on this page. If it is not right, reject it and tell us why; your comments go straight to Casey.
986790b5 · November £576,728 · December £395,501 · built 2026-10-30Saved on this page the moment you click, so there is nothing to send afterwards.
Draft, 30 October 2026. Nothing changes in the ad accounts or the Kova Forecast until the forecast on page 2 is approved and Casey publishes it.