What it looks like if we hit the goal: the revenue by day on the sheet's shape, the ad spend that keeps the business at break-even after all costs every day until early access, and the profit from then on. New-customer ROAS is the return those ads would have to make on new customers; blended ROAS is total revenue over ad spend. Orange rows are Black Friday week, blue rows December. All figures include VAT.
| Week | Ad spend | New-customer revenue | Returning + subs | Total revenue | New-customer ROAS | Blended ROAS | Profit after all costs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Oct-1 Nov | £7,059 | £14,903 | £5,094 | £19,997 | 2.11x | 2.83x | £0 |
| 2-8 Nov | £43,664 | £89,909 | £36,150 | £126,059 | 2.06x | 2.89x | £0 |
| 9-15 Nov | £56,746 | £97,388 | £61,514 | £158,899 | 1.72x | 2.80x | £0 |
| 16-22 Nov | £39,367 | £80,034 | £35,622 | £115,658 | 2.03x | 2.94x | £0 |
| 23-25 Nov (pre-BF) | £13,612 | £26,676 | £15,002 | £41,677 | 1.96x | 3.06x | £0 |
| 26-29 Nov (EA+BF wknd) | £83,277 | £215,215 | £150,496 | £365,710 | 2.58x | 4.39x | £41,749 |
| 30 Nov-6 Dec (CM) | £58,864 | £147,101 | £74,507 | £221,609 | 2.50x | 3.76x | £19,807 |
| 7-13 Dec | £60,144 | £161,126 | £56,895 | £218,021 | 2.68x | 3.62x | £19,351 |
| 14-20 Dec | £50,318 | £139,760 | £51,767 | £191,529 | 2.78x | 3.81x | £15,978 |
| 21-27 Dec | £28,551 | £72,243 | £41,387 | £113,631 | 2.53x | 3.98x | £6,064 |
| 28-31 Dec | £22,156 | £54,758 | £40,450 | £95,208 | 2.47x | 4.30x | £7,320 |
| November | £260,120 | £566,277 | £333,725 | £899,998 | 2.18x | 3.46x | £49,713 |
| December | £203,638 | £532,836 | £235,159 | £768,000 | 2.62x | 3.77x | £60,556 |
| Day | Ad spend | New-customer revenue | Returning + subs | Total revenue | New-customer ROAS | Blended ROAS | Profit after all costs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-01 Sun | £7,059 | £14,903 | £5,094 | £19,997 | 2.11x | 2.83x | £0 |
| 2026-11-02 Mon | £6,092 | £12,371 | £5,285 | £17,657 | 2.03x | 2.90x | £0 |
| 2026-11-03 Tue | £6,269 | £12,901 | £5,183 | £18,084 | 2.06x | 2.88x | £0 |
| 2026-11-04 Wed | £5,794 | £11,878 | £5,056 | £16,934 | 2.05x | 2.92x | £0 |
| 2026-11-05 Thu | £5,874 | £12,088 | £5,040 | £17,127 | 2.06x | 2.92x | £0 |
| 2026-11-06 Fri | £6,570 | £13,624 | £5,189 | £18,813 | 2.07x | 2.86x | £0 |
| 2026-11-07 Sat | £6,920 | £14,425 | £5,236 | £19,661 | 2.08x | 2.84x | £0 |
| 2026-11-08 Sun | £6,145 | £12,622 | £5,161 | £17,783 | 2.05x | 2.89x | £0 |
| 2026-11-09 Mon | £5,998 | £12,110 | £5,320 | £17,429 | 2.02x | 2.91x | £0 |
| 2026-11-10 Tue Gold launch 8am (potter collab) | £14,605 | £19,967 | £18,302 | £38,268 | 1.37x | 2.62x | £0 |
| 2026-11-11 Wed Gold day 2 | £6,078 | £8,860 | £8,763 | £17,623 | 1.46x | 2.90x | £0 |
| 2026-11-12 Thu | £6,157 | £12,516 | £5,298 | £17,814 | 2.03x | 2.89x | £0 |
| 2026-11-13 Fri | £5,922 | £11,897 | £5,346 | £17,243 | 2.01x | 2.91x | £0 |
| 2026-11-14 Sat Birthday GWP email+SMS (60 petites) | £11,727 | £19,984 | £12,479 | £32,463 | 1.70x | 2.77x | £0 |
| 2026-11-15 Sun Birthday tail | £6,259 | £12,054 | £6,006 | £18,059 | 1.93x | 2.89x | £0 |
| 2026-11-16 Mon | £5,777 | £11,623 | £5,269 | £16,893 | 2.01x | 2.92x | £0 |
| 2026-11-17 Tue | £5,812 | £11,825 | £5,153 | £16,978 | 2.03x | 2.92x | £0 |
| 2026-11-18 Wed | £6,080 | £12,593 | £5,033 | £17,626 | 2.07x | 2.90x | £0 |
| 2026-11-19 Thu | £5,920 | £12,235 | £5,004 | £17,239 | 2.07x | 2.91x | £0 |
| 2026-11-20 Fri | £6,126 | £12,898 | £4,841 | £17,739 | 2.11x | 2.90x | £0 |
| 2026-11-21 Sat | £5,734 | £11,629 | £5,161 | £16,790 | 2.03x | 2.93x | £0 |
| 2026-11-22 Sun pre-BF lull | £3,918 | £7,231 | £5,161 | £12,393 | 1.85x | 3.16x | £0 |
| 2026-11-23 Mon pre-BF lull | £3,841 | £6,737 | £5,470 | £12,206 | 1.75x | 3.18x | £0 |
| 2026-11-24 Tue pre-BF lull | £3,665 | £7,683 | £4,098 | £11,781 | 2.10x | 3.21x | £0 |
| 2026-11-25 Wed pre-BF lull | £6,106 | £12,256 | £5,434 | £17,690 | 2.01x | 2.90x | £0 |
| 2026-11-26 Thu Early access (7am) + SMS | £24,392 | £61,118 | £45,999 | £107,117 | 2.51x | 4.39x | £12,434 |
| 2026-11-27 Fri Black Friday public + SMS | £29,781 | £76,786 | £53,998 | £130,784 | 2.58x | 4.39x | £15,447 |
| 2026-11-28 Sat BF weekend | £15,851 | £40,716 | £28,893 | £69,608 | 2.57x | 4.39x | £7,660 |
| 2026-11-29 Sun BF weekend | £13,253 | £36,595 | £21,606 | £58,201 | 2.76x | 4.39x | £6,208 |
| 2026-11-30 Mon Cyber Monday + SMS, offer closes | £16,395 | £42,152 | £29,847 | £71,998 | 2.57x | 4.39x | £7,964 |
| 2026-12-01 Tue | £5,805 | £16,572 | £4,712 | £21,284 | 2.85x | 3.67x | £1,509 |
| 2026-12-02 Wed | £4,820 | £6,376 | £10,495 | £16,872 | 1.32x | 3.50x | £948 |
| 2026-12-03 Thu | £4,841 | £8,196 | £8,746 | £16,942 | 1.69x | 3.50x | £956 |
| 2026-12-04 Fri | £9,034 | £23,663 | £7,957 | £31,620 | 2.62x | 3.50x | £2,825 |
| 2026-12-05 Sat | £8,932 | £24,338 | £6,924 | £31,263 | 2.72x | 3.50x | £2,779 |
| 2026-12-06 Sun | £9,037 | £25,804 | £5,826 | £31,630 | 2.86x | 3.50x | £2,826 |
| 2026-12-07 Mon | £8,963 | £24,664 | £6,704 | £31,369 | 2.75x | 3.50x | £2,793 |
| 2026-12-08 Tue | £8,713 | £23,720 | £6,775 | £30,495 | 2.72x | 3.50x | £2,682 |
| 2026-12-09 Wed | £8,944 | £24,909 | £6,395 | £31,304 | 2.78x | 3.50x | £2,785 |
| 2026-12-10 Thu | £8,979 | £20,771 | £10,655 | £31,426 | 2.31x | 3.50x | £2,800 |
| 2026-12-11 Fri | £8,217 | £23,793 | £7,486 | £31,278 | 2.90x | 3.81x | £2,781 |
| 2026-12-12 Sat | £8,096 | £21,304 | £9,512 | £30,816 | 2.63x | 3.81x | £2,722 |
| 2026-12-13 Sun | £8,232 | £21,965 | £9,368 | £31,333 | 2.67x | 3.81x | £2,788 |
| 2026-12-14 Mon | £8,405 | £24,047 | £7,946 | £31,993 | 2.86x | 3.81x | £2,872 |
| 2026-12-15 Tue | £8,580 | £24,745 | £7,913 | £32,658 | 2.88x | 3.81x | £2,957 |
| 2026-12-16 Wed | £8,006 | £23,127 | £7,348 | £30,475 | 2.89x | 3.81x | £2,679 |
| 2026-12-17 Thu | £8,114 | £23,580 | £7,304 | £30,884 | 2.91x | 3.81x | £2,731 |
| 2026-12-18 Fri | £8,209 | £23,632 | £7,614 | £31,247 | 2.88x | 3.81x | £2,777 |
| 2026-12-19 Sat | £4,489 | £9,523 | £7,564 | £17,087 | 2.12x | 3.81x | £975 |
| 2026-12-20 Sun final shipping days | £4,515 | £11,106 | £6,078 | £17,185 | 2.46x | 3.81x | £987 |
| 2026-12-21 Mon final shipping days | £4,309 | £9,791 | £6,609 | £16,401 | 2.27x | 3.81x | £888 |
| 2026-12-22 Tue last shipping day 22 Dec | £2,510 | £5,115 | £4,440 | £9,555 | 2.04x | 3.81x | £16 |
| 2026-12-23 Wed after shipping cut-off | £2,781 | £7,799 | £1,935 | £9,734 | 2.80x | 3.50x | £39 |
| 2026-12-24 Thu after shipping cut-off | £1,883 | £4,563 | £2,029 | £6,592 | 2.42x | 3.50x | −£361 |
| 2026-12-25 Fri Christmas Day | £2,500 | £6,720 | £2,029 | £8,749 | 2.69x | 3.50x | −£86 |
| 2026-12-26 Sat Boxing Day sale (TBC) | £9,029 | £25,021 | £13,777 | £38,798 | 2.77x | 4.30x | £3,738 |
| 2026-12-27 Sun Boxing sale (TBC) | £5,539 | £13,234 | £10,568 | £23,802 | 2.39x | 4.30x | £1,830 |
| 2026-12-28 Mon Boxing sale (TBC) | £5,539 | £12,061 | £11,741 | £23,802 | 2.18x | 4.30x | £1,830 |
| 2026-12-29 Tue Boxing sale (TBC) | £5,539 | £13,527 | £10,275 | £23,802 | 2.44x | 4.30x | £1,830 |
| 2026-12-30 Wed Boxing sale (TBC) | £5,539 | £12,191 | £11,611 | £23,802 | 2.20x | 4.30x | £1,830 |
| 2026-12-31 Thu Boxing sale (TBC) | £5,539 | £16,979 | £6,823 | £23,802 | 3.07x | 4.30x | £1,830 |
If this is the forecast we work to, approve it here and Casey will publish it to the Kova Forecast as the Q4 plan. This signs off our forecast on page 2, not the £900k / £768k scenario on this page. If it is not right, reject it and tell us why; your comments go straight to Casey.
a95c0e08 · November £565,137 · December £405,229 · built 2026-10-30Saved on this page the moment you click, so there is nothing to send afterwards.
Draft, 30 October 2026. Our forecast is on page 2. Nothing changes until it is approved and Casey publishes it.