30 October 2026. All figures include VAT, with ex VAT shown where it helps. Draft for discussion.
Built from last year's November and December, day by day, with this year's growth applied, and one rule: break even every day, after all costs, until Black Friday, then make the money from early access onwards. Page 1 shows what the £900k / £768k goal would take under the same rule.
Until 25 November: spend the most that still breaks even after ads and the fixed overhead (about £1,200 a day) each day. No day loses money. That is about £2.3k a day in ads, roughly half of today's £4.8k, with room to run to £3.5–4k on the Gold launch (10 Nov) and the birthday (14 Nov).
26 to 30 November: early access, Black Friday, Cyber Monday. Spend to a 3.5x floor (4.4x on 20%-off days). Forecast £326,215 in five days, 58% of the month, £44,533 profit after overhead.
December: keep the 3.5x floor, so every December day is profitable, tapering to the 22 December shipping cut-off, then the Boxing Day sale.
| Week | Last year revenue | Last year ads | Forecast revenue | Ads | Ads / day | MER | After ads | After overhead | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Oct-1 Nov | £15,768 | £4,957 | £34,121 | £10,969 | £3,656 | 3.11x | £3,123 | −£477 | +116% |
| 2-8 Nov | £54,115 | £18,513 | £57,395 | £15,304 | £2,186 | 3.75x | £8,400 | −£0 | +6% |
| 9-15 Nov | £72,295 | £27,177 | £98,392 | £16,500 | £2,357 | 5.96x | £23,656 | £15,256 | +36% |
| 16-22 Nov | £71,270 | £23,021 | £55,321 | £14,446 | £2,064 | 3.83x | £8,402 | £2 | -22% |
| 23-25 Nov (pre-BF) | £16,555 | £6,620 | £19,671 | £4,083 | £1,361 | 4.82x | £4,041 | £441 | +19% |
| 26-29 Nov (EA+BF wknd) | £176,914 | £22,523 | £274,129 | £53,412 | £13,353 | 5.13x | £43,903 | £39,103 | +55% |
| 30 Nov-6 Dec (CM) | £87,617 | £19,343 | £124,851 | £32,161 | £4,594 | 3.88x | £16,276 | £7,876 | +42% |
| 7-13 Dec | £86,854 | £19,928 | £120,222 | £31,455 | £4,494 | 3.82x | £16,894 | £8,494 | +38% |
| 14-20 Dec | £72,556 | £21,428 | £90,197 | £23,696 | £3,385 | 3.81x | £11,481 | £3,081 | +24% |
| 21-27 Dec | £47,477 | £6,759 | £60,031 | £13,792 | £1,970 | 4.35x | £8,649 | £249 | +26% |
| 28-31 Dec | £24,637 | £3,262 | £58,665 | £13,618 | £3,405 | 4.31x | £7,501 | £2,701 | +138% |
| November | £406,159 | £102,811 | £565,137 | £117,768 | £3,926 | 4.80x | £96,233 | £60,233 | +39% |
| December | £316,607 | £70,721 | £401,879 | £102,862 | £3,318 | 3.91x | £54,170 | £16,970 | +27% |
Weeks are matched to the same weekday last year. The 16 to 22 November week looks flat because last year's birthday and Pudding Pott launch fell in it; this year's Gold launch (10 Nov) and birthday (14 Nov) sit in the week before. Late December depends on the Boxing Day sale, which is not yet set.
| November | Nov ads | Nov after overhead | December | Dec ads | Dec after overhead | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Our forecast | £565,137 £470,947 ex VAT · +39% | £117,768 | £60,233 | £401,879 £334,899 ex VAT · +27% | £102,862 | £16,970 | Last year's days, this year's growth, every day break-even after all costs until Black Friday, profitable after. The plan we would run. |
| October's growth rate carried on (+64%) | £665,890 £554,909 ex VAT · +64% | £214,861 | £1,220 | £519,072 £432,560 ex VAT · +64% | £209,180 | −£43,299 | What October's growth rate would mean if it carried on. Needs about double the pre-BF spend of our plan, so it loses money on quiet days; shown so the gap between trend and profit is visible. |
| The £900k / £768k goal | £900,000 £750,000 ex VAT · +122% | £260,119 | −£31,697 | £768,000 £640,000 ex VAT · +143% | £203,637 | −£40,217 | Spend at no loss each day gets to £692,550 / £511,999. New-customer ads would have to return 2x in November and 2.6x in December; the account has never done that outside Black Friday. Day by day on page 1. |
Ad budget is not the constraint. How well cold ads convert is. Every lever below raises new-customer revenue per £1 of ads, which is what lets us spend more profitably before Black Friday.
Draft. Nothing in the ad accounts or the Kova Forecast has been changed.