Her revenue = her sheet's daily shape scaled to £900k November and £768k December (incl VAT). Spend (no loss) = the most we can spend that day without losing money: before BF, contribution after ads is zero (returning customers cover the new-customer loss, overhead is not covered); from early access on, contribution is 12.7% of revenue (the 3.5x rule), which is where the profit comes from. NC ROAS required = the new-customer revenue that spend must return to hit her number. Curve says = what we'd actually get at that spend on this year's efficiency. Push = the realistic line from the v2 write-up, for comparison. Orange rows are BF5, blue rows December.
| Week | Her revenue | Returning | NC needed | Spend (no loss) | £/day | NC ROAS required | NC ROAS curve says | Revenue if curve right | Profit planned (after OH) | Profit if curve right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Nov | £19,997 | £5,094 | £14,903 | £8,259 | £8,259 | 1.80x | 1.01x | £13,420 | £-1,200 | £-3,916 |
| 2-8 Nov | £126,059 | £36,150 | £89,910 | £52,063 | £7,438 | 1.73x | 1.02x | £89,332 | £-8,400 | £-23,568 |
| 9-15 Nov | £158,900 | £61,513 | £97,387 | £65,146 | £9,307 | 1.49x | 1.15x | £136,328 | £-8,400 | £-17,722 |
| 16-22 Nov | £115,658 | £35,622 | £80,035 | £47,767 | £6,824 | 1.68x | 1.01x | £83,888 | £-8,400 | £-21,521 |
| 23-25 Nov (pre-BF) | £41,678 | £15,002 | £26,676 | £17,213 | £5,738 | 1.55x | 0.73x | £27,546 | £-3,600 | £-9,436 |
| 26-29 Nov (EA+BF wknd) | £365,710 | £150,494 | £215,215 | £83,277 | £20,819 | 2.58x | 1.87x | £306,298 | £41,750 | £20,658 |
| 30 Nov-6 Dec (CM) | £221,609 | £70,367 | £151,242 | £58,864 | £8,409 | 2.57x | 1.44x | £154,986 | £19,808 | £-6,764 |
| 7-13 Dec | £218,022 | £62,285 | £155,736 | £60,143 | £8,592 | 2.59x | 1.56x | £156,379 | £19,351 | £-5,557 |
| 14-20 Dec | £191,528 | £51,620 | £139,908 | £50,317 | £7,188 | 2.78x | 1.34x | £119,209 | £15,979 | £-12,226 |
| 21-27 Dec | £113,631 | £40,286 | £73,345 | £28,551 | £4,079 | 2.57x | 1.13x | £72,411 | £6,064 | £-9,843 |
| 28-31 Dec | £95,209 | £40,451 | £54,758 | £22,157 | £5,539 | 2.47x | 1.19x | £66,879 | £7,319 | £-2,880 |
| 2026-11 | £900,000 | £333,722 | £566,278 | £290,119 | £9,671 | 1.95x | 1.31x | £714,676 | £19,714 | £-52,559 |
| 2026-12 | £768,000 | £235,162 | £532,838 | £203,637 | £6,569 | 2.62x | 1.36x | £511,999 | £60,555 | £-40,217 |
| Date | Event | Her revenue | Returning | NC needed | Spend (no loss) | NC ROAS required | Curve says | Revenue if curve right | Net if hit | Net if curve right | Push spend | Push revenue | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-01 | Sun | £19,997 | £5,094 | £14,903 | £8,259 | 1.8x | 1.01x | £13,420 | −£1,200 | −£3,916 | £4,160 | £10,072 | |
| 2026-11-02 | Mon | £17,657 | £5,285 | £12,371 | £7,292 | 1.7x | 1.03x | £12,816 | −£1,200 | −£3,199 | £4,262 | £10,319 | |
| 2026-11-03 | Tue | £18,084 | £5,183 | £12,901 | £7,469 | 1.73x | 1.04x | £12,972 | −£1,200 | −£3,311 | £4,247 | £10,284 | |
| 2026-11-04 | Wed | £16,934 | £5,056 | £11,878 | £6,994 | 1.7x | 1.06x | £12,470 | −£1,200 | −£3,044 | £4,163 | £10,081 | |
| 2026-11-05 | Thu | £17,127 | £5,040 | £12,088 | £7,074 | 1.71x | 1.04x | £12,378 | −£1,200 | −£3,162 | £4,091 | £9,907 | |
| 2026-11-06 | Fri | £18,813 | £5,189 | £13,624 | £7,770 | 1.75x | 1.01x | £13,050 | −£1,200 | −£3,580 | £4,184 | £10,131 | |
| 2026-11-07 | Sat | £19,661 | £5,236 | £14,425 | £8,120 | 1.78x | 0.97x | £13,146 | −£1,200 | −£3,891 | £4,130 | £10,000 | |
| 2026-11-08 | Sun | £17,783 | £5,161 | £12,622 | £7,345 | 1.72x | 1.0x | £12,500 | −£1,200 | −£3,382 | £4,083 | £9,886 | |
| 2026-11-09 | Mon | £17,429 | £5,320 | £12,110 | £7,198 | 1.68x | 0.98x | £12,385 | −£1,200 | −£3,283 | £4,116 | £9,965 | |
| 2026-11-10 | Tue | Gold launch 8am (potter collab) | £38,268 | £18,302 | £19,967 | £15,805 | 1.26x | 1.17x | £36,790 | −£1,200 | −£1,811 | £4,527 | £28,963 |
| 2026-11-11 | Wed | Gold day 2 | £17,623 | £8,763 | £8,860 | £7,278 | 1.22x | 1.33x | £18,477 | −£1,200 | −£847 | £4,980 | £16,752 |
| 2026-11-12 | Thu | £17,814 | £5,298 | £12,516 | £7,357 | 1.7x | 0.94x | £12,198 | −£1,200 | −£3,519 | £3,988 | £9,657 | |
| 2026-11-13 | Fri | £17,243 | £5,346 | £11,897 | £7,122 | 1.67x | 0.96x | £12,157 | −£1,200 | −£3,301 | £4,050 | £9,807 | |
| 2026-11-14 | Sat | Birthday GWP email+SMS (60 petites) | £32,463 | £12,479 | £19,984 | £12,927 | 1.55x | 1.23x | £28,417 | −£1,200 | −£2,871 | £4,455 | £22,248 |
| 2026-11-15 | Sun | Birthday tail | £18,059 | £6,006 | £12,054 | £7,459 | 1.62x | 1.33x | £15,904 | −£1,200 | −£2,090 | £4,901 | £13,898 |
| 2026-11-16 | Mon | £16,893 | £5,269 | £11,623 | £6,977 | 1.67x | 0.98x | £12,079 | −£1,200 | −£3,188 | £4,045 | £9,793 | |
| 2026-11-17 | Tue | £16,978 | £5,153 | £11,825 | £7,012 | 1.69x | 1.0x | £12,146 | −£1,200 | −£3,196 | £4,037 | £9,775 | |
| 2026-11-18 | Wed | £17,626 | £5,033 | £12,593 | £7,280 | 1.73x | 1.0x | £12,322 | −£1,200 | −£3,391 | £4,000 | £9,685 | |
| 2026-11-19 | Thu | £17,239 | £5,004 | £12,235 | £7,120 | 1.72x | 1.0x | £12,098 | −£1,200 | −£3,323 | £3,950 | £9,564 | |
| 2026-11-20 | Fri | £17,739 | £4,841 | £12,898 | £7,326 | 1.76x | 1.02x | £12,295 | −£1,200 | −£3,449 | £3,928 | £9,511 | |
| 2026-11-21 | Sat | £16,790 | £5,161 | £11,629 | £6,934 | 1.68x | 1.01x | £12,190 | −£1,200 | −£3,100 | £4,083 | £9,886 | |
| 2026-11-22 | Sun | pre-BF lull (LY 2025-11-23) | £12,393 | £5,161 | £7,231 | £5,118 | 1.41x | 1.09x | £10,758 | −£1,200 | −£1,875 | £4,083 | £9,886 |
| 2026-11-23 | Mon | pre-BF lull (LY 2025-11-24) | £12,206 | £5,470 | £6,737 | £5,041 | 1.34x | 1.05x | £10,775 | −£1,200 | −£1,791 | £4,154 | £10,058 |
| 2026-11-24 | Tue | pre-BF lull (LY 2025-11-25) | £11,781 | £4,098 | £7,683 | £4,865 | 1.58x | 0.68x | £7,413 | −£1,200 | −£3,004 | £2,531 | £6,129 |
| 2026-11-25 | Wed | pre-BF lull (LY 2025-11-26) | £17,690 | £5,434 | £12,256 | £7,306 | 1.68x | 0.54x | £9,358 | −£1,200 | −£4,641 | £2,784 | £7,337 |
| 2026-11-26 | Thu | Early access (7am) + SMS | £107,117 | £45,999 | £61,118 | £24,392 | 2.51x | 2.05x | £96,023 | £12,434 | £8,496 | £12,000 | £84,851 |
| 2026-11-27 | Fri | Black Friday public + SMS | £130,784 | £53,998 | £76,786 | £29,781 | 2.58x | 1.79x | £107,363 | £15,447 | £7,133 | £20,400 | £97,003 |
| 2026-11-28 | Sat | BF weekend | £69,608 | £28,893 | £40,716 | £15,851 | 2.57x | 1.76x | £56,711 | £7,660 | £3,082 | £11,703 | £51,394 |
| 2026-11-29 | Sun | BF weekend | £58,201 | £21,606 | £36,595 | £13,253 | 2.76x | 1.86x | £46,200 | £6,208 | £1,948 | £9,309 | £40,882 |
| 2026-11-30 | Mon | Cyber Monday + SMS, offer closes | £71,998 | £29,847 | £42,152 | £16,395 | 2.57x | 1.71x | £57,864 | £7,964 | £2,947 | £11,861 | £52,086 |
| 2026-12-01 | Tue | £21,284 | £4,712 | £16,572 | £5,805 | 2.86x | 1.22x | £11,776 | £1,509 | −£2,294 | £1,915 | £7,787 | |
| 2026-12-02 | Wed | £16,872 | £10,495 | £6,376 | £4,820 | 1.32x | 1.39x | £17,186 | £948 | £1,077 | £4,400 | £16,744 | |
| 2026-12-03 | Thu | £16,942 | £8,746 | £8,196 | £4,841 | 1.69x | 1.43x | £15,658 | £956 | £426 | £4,840 | £15,658 | |
| 2026-12-04 | Fri | £31,620 | £6,366 | £25,254 | £9,034 | 2.8x | 1.33x | £18,411 | £2,825 | −£2,630 | £4,260 | £13,220 | |
| 2026-12-05 | Sat | £31,263 | £5,540 | £25,723 | £8,932 | 2.88x | 1.31x | £17,216 | £2,779 | −£3,022 | £3,451 | £11,262 | |
| 2026-12-06 | Sun | £31,630 | £4,661 | £26,969 | £9,037 | 2.98x | 1.35x | £16,874 | £2,826 | −£3,268 | £2,845 | £9,793 | |
| 2026-12-07 | Mon | £31,369 | £5,363 | £26,005 | £8,963 | 2.9x | 1.44x | £18,287 | £2,793 | −£2,610 | £3,844 | £12,212 | |
| 2026-12-08 | Tue | £30,495 | £7,683 | £22,811 | £8,713 | 2.62x | 1.62x | £21,757 | £2,682 | −£927 | £4,400 | £16,114 | |
| 2026-12-09 | Wed | £31,304 | £7,253 | £24,052 | £8,944 | 2.69x | 1.55x | £21,076 | £2,785 | −£1,440 | £4,840 | £15,974 | |
| 2026-12-10 | Thu | £31,426 | £12,084 | £19,342 | £8,979 | 2.15x | 1.52x | £25,764 | £2,800 | £462 | £5,324 | £21,328 | |
| 2026-12-11 | Fri | £31,278 | £8,490 | £22,789 | £8,217 | 2.77x | 1.67x | £22,216 | £2,781 | −£753 | £5,856 | £19,137 | |
| 2026-12-12 | Sat | £30,816 | £10,787 | £20,029 | £8,096 | 2.47x | 1.67x | £24,285 | £2,722 | £175 | £6,442 | £22,159 | |
| 2026-12-13 | Sun | £31,333 | £10,625 | £20,708 | £8,232 | 2.52x | 1.5x | £22,993 | £2,788 | −£464 | £7,086 | £21,678 | |
| 2026-12-14 | Mon | £31,993 | £9,012 | £22,981 | £8,405 | 2.73x | 1.52x | £21,820 | £2,872 | −£1,095 | £6,374 | £19,420 | |
| 2026-12-15 | Tue | £32,658 | £8,974 | £23,684 | £8,580 | 2.76x | 1.5x | £21,852 | £2,957 | −£1,257 | £6,269 | £19,152 | |
| 2026-12-16 | Wed | £30,475 | £7,348 | £23,127 | £8,006 | 2.89x | 1.35x | £18,162 | £2,679 | −£2,123 | £4,321 | £14,158 | |
| 2026-12-17 | Thu | £30,884 | £7,304 | £23,580 | £8,114 | 2.91x | 1.24x | £17,388 | £2,731 | −£2,532 | £3,933 | £13,163 | |
| 2026-12-18 | Fri | £31,247 | £7,614 | £23,632 | £8,209 | 2.88x | 1.21x | £17,576 | £2,777 | −£2,555 | £4,061 | £13,491 | |
| 2026-12-19 | Sat | £17,087 | £6,303 | £10,783 | £4,489 | 2.4x | 1.28x | £12,066 | £975 | −£983 | £2,862 | £10,415 | |
| 2026-12-20 | Sun | final shipping days | £17,185 | £5,065 | £12,119 | £4,515 | 2.68x | 1.17x | £10,345 | £987 | −£1,680 | £1,815 | £7,731 |
| 2026-12-21 | Mon | final shipping days | £16,401 | £5,508 | £10,893 | £4,309 | 2.53x | 1.18x | £10,607 | £888 | −£1,372 | £2,114 | £8,497 |
| 2026-12-22 | Tue | last shipping day 22 Dec | £9,555 | £4,440 | £5,115 | £2,510 | 2.04x | 1.02x | £7,004 | £16 | −£979 | £1,053 | £5,776 |
| 2026-12-23 | Wed | after shipping cut-off | £9,734 | £1,935 | £7,799 | £2,781 | 2.8x | 0.49x | £3,308 | £39 | −£2,615 | £600 | £2,370 |
| 2026-12-24 | Thu | after shipping cut-off | £6,592 | £2,029 | £4,563 | £1,883 | 2.42x | 0.54x | £3,054 | −£361 | −£1,822 | £600 | £2,464 |
| 2026-12-25 | Fri | Christmas Day | £8,749 | £2,029 | £6,720 | £2,500 | 2.69x | 0.51x | £3,297 | −£86 | −£2,338 | £600 | £2,464 |
| 2026-12-26 | Sat | Boxing Day sale (TBC) | £38,798 | £13,777 | £25,021 | £9,029 | 2.77x | 1.42x | £26,563 | £3,738 | −£666 | £4,400 | £21,235 |
| 2026-12-27 | Sun | Boxing sale (TBC) | £23,802 | £10,568 | £13,234 | £5,539 | 2.39x | 1.45x | £18,579 | £1,830 | −£51 | £4,840 | £17,808 |
| 2026-12-28 | Mon | Boxing sale (TBC) | £23,802 | £11,741 | £12,061 | £5,539 | 2.18x | 1.18x | £18,279 | £1,830 | −£159 | £5,306 | £18,072 |
| 2026-12-29 | Tue | Boxing sale (TBC) | £23,802 | £10,275 | £13,527 | £5,539 | 2.44x | 1.16x | £16,677 | £1,830 | −£735 | £4,457 | £15,714 |
| 2026-12-30 | Wed | Boxing sale (TBC) | £23,802 | £11,611 | £12,191 | £5,539 | 2.2x | 1.16x | £18,035 | £1,830 | −£246 | £4,903 | £17,473 |
| 2026-12-31 | Thu | Boxing sale (TBC) | £23,802 | £6,823 | £16,979 | £5,539 | 3.07x | 1.28x | £13,888 | £1,830 | −£1,740 | £2,768 | £11,022 |
Source: pott-q4-goal-path-daily.csv, model model/goal_path.py. Draft, nothing pushed.